I have been looking over polling data for the past several days and have come to some interesting conclusions when it comes to 2012.
First I will present some of the more recent poll data:
~President Obama is no longer polling as the front runner for 2012 in all polls. In fact the average shows him about 3.4% behind "Republican" (unnamed).
~Despite this it is still likely that he will win re-election as historical patterns show strongly for incumbents (not as much as local and state level elections but still signifcant).
~That being said there is further interesting data as when the current likely republican field is polled against Obama in that they all lose (with the exception of 1 poll showing a tie with Romney)
The following is the breakdown of the current likely Republican candidates vs Obama. I am showing the national averages of all polls conducted and combined:
Romney VS Obama (+4.4% Obama)
Bachman VS Obama (+13.4% Obama)
Palin VS Obama (+20% Obama)
Cain VS Obama (+16.3% Obama)
Gingrich VS Obama (+14.7% Obama)
Huntsman VS Obama (+14.0% Obama)
Pawlentry VS Obama (+13.5% Obama)
Paul VS Obama (+10% Obama)
From this data we can discern a few things. First is that in general people want somebody besides Obama. It is also clear that those same people really don't care for the current Republican field.
The difficulty with running Romney against Obama is that on a few big issues it will be very difficult 1 on 1 for him to compete with Obama; namely healthcare and welfare type issues. While at the moment it would appear that Romney would be the front runner for nomination and against Obama I think over time Romney would weaken.
Looking at the rest of the candidates there is only one other that currently isn't basically out when it comes to actually winning the Presidential election. Ron Paul, who coincidentally polled only a few weeks ago at only 5% behind Obama in a presidential race*, is probably the best option for the Republican Party to have a chance of winning the 2012 election. He posses a unique set of characteristics that I feel would give him a REAL chance at winning:
~He is, in my opinion, the only GOP/Independent candidate that has the charisma and comprehension to go head to head with Obama in a debate and win.
~He is strong willed enough to not get caught flipping on issues that will come up in debates/interviews.
~Don't like the Healthcare bill? He is the only candidate with an actual plan on how to fix it (Yelling "Repeal Obamacare" Is not a plan no matter how many times Romney, Palin or Bachman say it).
~In terms of dealing with an economically struggling electorate, he represents a strong set of ideas on how to fix the job market, an outlined plan for economic recovery that does not involve more government interference and how to get the country back to being self sufficient without cutting off key ties to allies and world markets.
~Nobody likes taxes...Including Ron Paul...He has argued against the Fed and the Income Tax for basically his whole career. I think on tax issues he could seriously cause trouble for Obama.
~He, unlike most of the Republican field, has actually read and can comprehend the Constitution. He also applies the entire document, not just the sections he likes. This is a breath of fresh air compared to Obama and the rest of the Republicans.
As a candidate I think that Ron Paul represents the most rounded candidate that could take on Obama and actually win. The only other "real" candidates are Romney, Palin and Bachman. Romney I think could make it close, but not win. And if you show me a true presidential campaign of Bachman or Palin VS Obama I think I could probably show you a 40 to 45 state victory for Obama (Bachman is the 'Constitutional Conservative' yet she has indicated time and time again that she has obviously never read it. And Sarah Palin is...well...Sarah Palin).
While I would rather see Hillary Clinton run and win, that is simply not going to happen in 2012. That being said I think Ron Paul is probably the best option we have as a country moving forward.
*Paul's poll numbers could be slipping simply because of lack of exposure. Plainly put, he does not have the money to compete (I will address election reform in a future post)