The Iowa Caucus is fast approaching. I have been watching polling data and campaign camps closely as the day draws near. Iowa has become very interesting this year as it seems unlikely to play its historical role (Most of the time, the winner of Iowa goes on to secure the nomination, only 1 time since 1988 have the Iowans been "wrong"). However, it is looking more and more like Ron Paul will win Iowa, it also is becoming apparent that he will not win anywhere else.
Iowa:
Ron Paul +4 over Romney
New Hampshire:
Mitt Romney +17 over Gingrich
South Carolina:
Newt Gingrich +16 over Romney
Florida:
Newt Gingrich +19 over Romney
National Poll:
Newt Gingrich +3 over Romney (within the margin of error)
Generally speaking, and according to most news outlets and prediction sites Newt Gingrich will win the Republican Nomination. This is a change from a few months ago when it appeared as if Romney would run away with it. Unfortunately Gingrich is one of the worst possible candidates for Republicans to nominate as he is getting demolished in polling against President Obama.
Republican v. Obama
Obama +0.5 (within the margin of error)
Mitt Romney v. Obama
Obama +3 (at the margin of error)
Newt Gingrich v. Obama
Obama +10
Ron Paul v. Obama
Obama +5
Rick Perry v. Obama
Obama +18
Michelle Bachmann v. Obama
Obama +20.5
This is a continued trend from a few months ago. When faced with the generic term "Republican" Obama is about even money. When faced against any of the remaining "real" Republican candidates Obama beats them all (although Romney is close). Newt Gingrich cannot beat President Obama in a general election.
Looking at the electoral college is where we can see the actual states that "matter" in 2012. Based on general knowledge, polling data and history we can see that President Obama already has "secured" 229 electoral votes. The Republican nominee has already "secured" 191 electoral votes. There are 118 electoral votes that are therefore unaccounted for.
Colorado (9)
Florida (29)
New Hampshire (4)
North Carolina (15)
Ohio (18)
Pennsylvania (20)
Virginia (13)
Wisconsin (10)
These are the states that "matter" in this given election cycle. Individual state poling data is incomplete or unavailable, however if we look at historical voting patterns it would not be unreasonable to assume that Obama will win Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Should that happen then Obama would need to secure only 11 more electoral votes to win the election. North Carolina seems unlikely to go for Obama again and Florida is all but guaranteed to go to the Republicans.
So that leaves:
Virginia (13)
Colorado (9)
New Hampshire (4)
Ohio (18)
This is where we get to my opinion/prediction:
Virginia and Ohio go to the Republicans. Colorado and New Hampshire go to Obama. Obama is re-elected 272-266 by the electoral college.
I would be very interested to hear some opinions on this one. Let me know if you think my state predictions are right or wrong or where they may be different.