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Now that someone has finally conducted a poll on the Brown Coakley Senate Race, it would seem there could be an upset in the making.
According to a Rasmussen Reports poll Democrat Martha Coakley holds a slim 9 point lead over Republican Candidate Scott Brown.
In most states a 9 point lead would not be considered slim by any means, but this is Massachusetts and by all media accounts Martha Coakley should have a 30 point lead over Brown. At least that is what they want you to believe.
The Poll was a sampling of 500 likely voters, and also showed that 7% of those polled are still undecided. Since we do not have any other polls to go on, there is no way of telling at this point which candidate the undecided voters are trending towards. But if I had to speculate, I would say that at least 2 to 3% of those still undecided will not vote. This is a special election, and a very short one at that, if you have not decided then most likely you have not been paying attention.
What is interesting is the Health Care reform numbers. Health Care is going to be a big issue in this race, because if Scott Brown wins, he will be the 41st vote for the republicans which will eliminate the democrats ability to force Health Care reform through the US Senate on their own. Of the 500 polled (and mind you this is ultra liberal Massachusetts) 53% favored the health care reform bill, with 26% of that group only stating that they "somewhat favored it". While on the other side 45% opposed it with only 9% somewhat opposing it, and 36% strongly opposing it. Of those polled 2% were not sure.
So stay tuned, because this really could be an upset in making. When you look at the voters who have strong opinions on health care reform you have 36% strongly opposing it while only 27% strongly favor it. Those are the people most likely to vote. Furthermore on the national level voters have been trending away from health care reform being presented by the democrats.
The democrats currently stationed in Washington could very well be hurting Martha Coakley as news is hitting the wire today that they intend to hold secret meetings to reconcile the the House bill and the Senate bill.
More importantly, this race is going to come down to turnout. Which candidate do you think has the most energized base at the moment?
While a Scott Brown loss would not likely be considered a referendum on Obama and democrats as a whole, a Scott Brown victory would be a hard-right to the jaw of every democrat in Congress and the White House.